Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 25.346437 30.226625 36.372175 44.916833 56.910969 73.888363 101.335817
2024-12-29 19.715167 25.109810 32.690060 44.800950 65.262111 102.490896 190.304761
2025-01-05 16.092268 21.216631 28.858818 42.098219 67.277811 122.294294 305.290995
2025-01-12 13.515576 18.192021 25.424208 38.615262 65.790966 133.819860 442.904554
2025-01-19 11.760029 16.079930 22.950202 36.002878 64.733461 145.954747 664.288714
2025-01-26 11.884268 16.855439 25.303938 43.063045 89.691100 281.499067 9291.271696
2025-02-02 11.395818 16.543069 25.676753 46.254565 107.945430 468.266360 NaN
2025-02-09 10.312419 15.081472 23.662476 43.444146 105.560937 523.812270 NaN
2025-02-16 9.882101 14.695309 23.634286 45.374469 121.831400 897.022793 NaN
2025-02-23 9.302201 13.976195 22.829879 45.114790 129.754347 1346.048646 NaN
2025-03-02 8.789292 13.325430 22.069469 44.770780 137.481793 2149.005252 NaN
2025-03-09 8.469770 12.996109 21.928127 46.123579 155.868978 5758.075011 NaN
2025-03-16 7.898773 12.179072 20.706739 44.218352 155.842255 10143.042279 NaN
2025-03-23 7.508149 11.672634 20.105960 44.078681 167.622746 75474.853898 NaN
2025-03-30 6.994773 10.891465 18.806949 41.439914 159.986149 164480.971430 NaN
2025-04-06 6.475840 10.068609 17.345420 38.037292 144.768292 67648.016603 NaN
2025-04-13 6.052059 9.406747 16.197092 35.482834 134.637264 55105.770501 NaN
2025-04-20 6.243089 9.943424 17.809247 42.381845 210.350807 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 6.177249 9.966494 18.236478 45.495865 269.677291 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 5.833510 9.404699 17.186549 42.753840 250.555628 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 5.729035 9.323717 17.310330 44.637419 303.658746 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 5.537387 9.050468 16.925360 44.384088 325.400961 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 5.355859 8.787473 16.541530 44.048459 346.907315 NaN NaN